Alright folks, let's talk about what happened this week and what's coming next. SPY closed at $689.23 - that's just 1.0% from all-time highs. QQQ at $622.72, DIA at $490.93. And VIX? Sitting at 16.09.

This week, the geopolitical landscape is buzzing with headlines. Notably, the focus on tech stocks is intensifying as several major companies gear up for earnings reports. We've got earnings from UPS, UNH, META, MSFT, TSLA, and AAPL, all reporting next week. Let me walk you through everything - the technicals, the catalysts, and what it all means for your trades.

The Story So Far

The markets are displaying mixed signals this week. SPY closed above all key EMAs, indicating institutional buying activity. However, momentum appears to be cooling off, which warrants caution. QQQ is leading the charge, reflecting strength in the tech sector, while DIA is lagging behind, suggesting that growth continues to outperform value.

Looking at market breadth, the NYSE Advance-Decline line confirms that this rally has broad participation, which is a bullish sign. Yet, the overall trend since October has been sideways, so traders should remain selective with their entries. February seasonality is approaching, historically a weaker month, raising the possibility of a pullback before the market finds its next leg up.

SPY Technical Analysis

📈 SPY EMA Stack (8/21/34 EMA Trend Analysis):

Legend: ■ 8 EMA (fast)   ■ 21 EMA (medium)   ■ 34 EMA (slow)

SPY closed at $689.23, above all EMAs, indicating bullish alignment with the 8-day EMA at $688.25, 21-day at $687.74, and 34-day at $685.85. However, the RSI at 51.6 suggests that we are in neutral-bullish territory, and while this indicates a healthy uptrend, momentum is starting to weaken as the MACD histogram is negative at -0.0925. The Bollinger Bands show that price is located at the middle band, further emphasizing the need for cautious optimism.

In summary, while SPY maintains a bullish technical structure, the signs of weakening momentum suggest that traders should watch for potential volatility ahead. Keeping an eye on the $685 support level will be crucial, especially as we navigate earnings and economic data next week.

QQQ - Tech Sector Check

QQQ is currently leading the broader market at $622.72. The RSI reading at 52.0 indicates a neutral condition, while the MACD shows bullish momentum with a histogram at 0.4769. This suggests that the tech sector remains strong, and traders should continue to monitor QQQ for direction, especially in light of the upcoming earnings from major tech names like META and MSFT.

DIA - Dow Check

DIA at $490.93 is underperforming compared to SPY and QQQ, reflecting a bearish momentum in the overall index. The RSI of 54.2 indicates neutrality, but the MACD suggests that the Dow may be losing steam. This divergence from growth indicates that traders should focus their attention on sectors that are demonstrating stronger performance.

Market Breadth - NYSE A/D Line

The NYSE Advance-Decline line confirms broad market participation in the rally, which is a positive indicator. A strong A/D line suggests that many stocks are participating in the upward movement, providing a solid foundation for the market's current trend. This breadth is essential for sustaining the rally as we enter a potentially volatile earnings season.

Sector Rotation & Heatmap

Current sector rotation shows that growth and tech sectors are leading the way, indicating a risk-on environment. We see strong momentum in the following sectors:

• LEADING (strong momentum): Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
• IMPROVING (gaining momentum): Communication Services (XLC)
• WEAKENING (losing momentum): Financials
• LAGGING (underperforming): Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP)

This rotation highlights opportunities in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, which are likely to provide better returns moving forward. Traders should focus on these areas while remaining cautious about lagging sectors.

VIX - The Fear Gauge

The VIX is currently at 16.09, indicating a calm market with reasonable premiums. This level suggests that option traders have a favorable environment for buying directional spreads. A VIX below 20 generally indicates that the market is not expecting significant volatility, which aligns with the current bullish sentiment in the tech sector.

Economic Calendar

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is packed with market-moving events. Key highlights include:

• Wed, Jan 28: Fed Interest Rate Decision - This will have immediate market impact.
• Wed, Jan 28: Fed Monetary Policy Statement - Watch for cues on future monetary policy.
• Wed, Jan 28: FOMC Press Conference - Further insights into Fed policy.
• Thu, Jan 29: Initial Jobless Claims - Employment data affects Fed policy.
• Thu, Jan 29: Gross Domestic Product Annualized - Strong growth could be bullish for equities.
• Fri, Jan 30: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Watch for market volatility around this release.

With these key events on the horizon, traders should consider reducing position sizes and preparing for potential volatility.

Earnings Calendar

"Here's the full breakdown of earnings this week - I've highlighted the ones that could really move the market:"

Day	Symbol	Company	Time	Impact
Monday, Jan 26	ARE	ARE Corp.	After Market	🟡
	BRO	BRO Corp.	After Market	🟡
	NUE	NUE Corp.	After Market	🟡
	STLD	STLD Corp.	After Market	🟡
	WRB	WRB Corp.	After Market	🟡
Tuesday, Jan 27	UPS	UPS Corp.	After Market	🟡
	BXP	BXP Corp.	After Market	🟡
	FFIV	FFIV Corp.	After Market	🟡
	GM	GM Corp.	After Market	🟡
	HCA	HCA Corp.	After Market	🟡
	IVZ	IVZ Corp.	After Market	🟡
	KMB	KMB Corp.	After Market	🟡
	NEE	NEE Corp.	After Market	🟡
	NOC	NOC Corp.	After Market	🟡
	PCAR	PCAR Corp.	After Market	🟡
	UNH	UNH Corp.	After Market	🔴
	BA	BA Corp.	After Market	🔴
Wednesday, Jan 28	META	Meta Platforms, Inc.	After Market	🔴
	MSFT	Microsoft Corporation	After Market	🔴
	TSLA	Tesla, Inc.	After Market	🔴
Thursday, Jan 29	ASML	ASML Corp.	After Market	🟡
	TMO	TMO Corp.	After Market	🟡
	AAPL	Apple Inc.	After Market	🔴
Friday, Jan 30	AXP	AXP Corp.	After Market	🟡

This week's earnings calendar features critical reports from UPS and UNH on Jan 27, followed by META, MSFT, and TSLA on Jan 28, and AAPL on Jan 29. These reports could significantly impact market sentiment, especially in the tech sector.

My Game Plan

Mixed signals are present in the market. SPY is trending up, but the momentum is cooling, and DIA is lagging behind. I am tightening stops to protect profits and watching the $685 level closely. If SPY breaks below this level, I will consider moving to cash to preserve capital. The market will be here tomorrow; I'd rather miss a move than force a bad trade.

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